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SailBlog: Wx Update E Caribbean, Fri04 Jul 08am

Posted 1 month, 27 days ago

SailBlog: Wx Update E Caribbean, Fri04 Jul 08am
Wx Update, E Caribbean, Fri04 Jul 08AM 6am QuickScat: NE winds 15kts Leeward/Windward Islands to Venezuelan. E-SE winds at 10kts Venezuelan Coast W of Trinidad to ABCs. Area of ENE winds 20-25kts winds S of Puerto Rico near 16N ABC, just south of 16N slight clocking to the ESE 15-20kts . Imagery: Well Defined Area between 15N -17N and 65W -70W of Showers/TSTMS still evident with Low Pressure/Tropical Wave. Small Band of showers S DR. Small area of light showers just west of St Lucia. Venezuelan Coast clear of any showers/TSTMS activity. Buoy Data 16N 58W Wind NE 12kts Seas 5ft, 15N 56W Winds ENE 10kts Seas 4ft, 14.5N 53W Wind ENE 12kts Seas 5ft SYNOPSIS: The Atlantic High has receded a bit to the East and North. This morning's analysis clearly indicates a pair of High Pressure Center in the overall pattern, one near 34N 41W and the other near 34N 61W. The ridging between the Highs will extend W over Central Fl by tomorrow morning. Troughing along the Southeastern seaboard and the associated diffluent flow is producing and area of overcast clouds with embedded scattered showers/TSTMS from the NW Bahamas N to 30N 76W-78W turns NE and continues N to offshore waters of NC. Showers and Few TSTMS still possible Fl. A weak cold front has cleared the NE coast from Maine to New York then moves inland as a stationary boundary. The Tropical Wave/Low Pressure Center that moved thru the windward/leeward Islands yesterday is now S of the Mona Passage near 70W-71W, while there is still some upper air support the area of spin associated with Low has weakened and no further development of the low is expected. The Atlantic High moved E and North and conditions in the East Caribbean are relaxing. OUTLOOK: As Tropical Storm Bertha moves NW the Atlantic High will remain a bit N and E of the position it held the past two weeks. Winds in the E Caribbean should relax thru the weekend and into early next week. Waves will continue to move thru the Region, and as the next Wave Sat05-Sun06 moves thru a slight increase to 25kts could be experienced as well as an increase in Showers/TSTMS. . . WAVES Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean south of PR/DR S of 18N along 69W. Circulation remains near the axis near 15N. Scattered showers/TSTMS are near the spin at 14N -16N. No further development expected as wave moves into the W Caribbean Tropical Wave which was forecasted to be near 60W this morning is no longer evident on the surface analysis. There was little activity associated with the Wave and the influence in the region would have been minimal. Next wave to approach the regions is the, Tropical Wave near 20N 51W moving W 20kts. Satellite imagery indicates isolated showers with the wave. Wave will move into the E Caribbean Sat05-Sun06. Tropical Storm Bertha-Centered 13.4N 27W about 160 NW WSW of Cape Verde Islands is moving W at 12kts. Estimated Central Press. 1006 MB. Max winds 35G45kts. Bertha maintains a well-defined circulation with a area of strong convection within 90NM N/NE of the Center. Bertha is forecast to strengthen today as conditions remain favorable for development but will remain as a Tropical Storm Thru the forecast period. Forecasted Positions Fri04 1800Z 15N 30.6W Max wind 45G55Kts, Sat 05 0600Z 15.9N 34.0W Max wind 45G55Kts Sat05 1800Z 16.6N 37.7W Max wind 50G60, Sun06 0600Z 17.3N 41.4W Max Wind 55G65 Mon07 0600Z 19N 48W Max wind 60G75. PRECIP: Isolated Showers Fri04 thru Sun06 WIND: (Directions if varied given in direction of travel) DR-St Martin: Fri04 068-072/12-18kts Sat05 058-077/12-15kts Sun06 063-078/13-17kts Mon07 070-075/17-20kts St Martin to Guadeloupe: Fri04 072-086/12-15kts Sat05 077-106/12-15kts Sun06 078/15-18kts Mon07 085/20-22Kts Guadeloupe to St Vincent: Fri04 096-075/12-15kts Sat05 106-112/12-15kts Sun06 078/12-15kts Mon07 082/17-20kts Barbados to Trinidad: Fri04 080-074/12kts Sat04 107/12-15kts Sun06 083/12-15kts Mon07 088/15-18kts Trinidad-Margarita: Fri04 074-106/12-15kts Sat05 107-087/12-15kts Sun06 083-064/12-15kts Mon06 078/15-18kts Margarita-ABCs: Fri 04 106-110/12-15kts Sat05 087-102/12-15kts Sun06 064-072/12-15kts Mon07 078 15-18kts PR-ABC's: Fri04 091-116/15kts Sat05 074-098/12-15kts Sun06 084/12-15kts Mon07 088/15-18kts PR/St Martin-T&C;: Fri04 096/12-15kts Sat05 080-113/12-15kts Sun06 084/12-15kts Mon07 087/15-20kts SEAS: (Directions if varied given in direction of travel) DR-St Martin: Fri04 102-092/3-4ft 6s Sat05 104-073/3-4ft 6s Sun06 099-066/3-4ft 6s Mon02 078/4-5ft 6s St Martin to Guadeloupe: Fri04 092-080/3-4ft 6s Sat05 073-062/3-4ft 6s Sun06 066/3-4ft 7s Mon07 084/4-5ft 7s Guadeloupe to St Vincent: Fri04 080/3-4ft 6s Sat05 062-082/3-4ft 6s Sun06 066/3-4ft 6s Mon07 070/4-5ft 7s Barbados to Trinidad: Fri04 070-081/3-4ft 6s Sat04 063/2-3ft 6s Sun06 069-058/3-4ft 6s Mon07 070/4-5ft 7s Trinidad-Margarita: Fri04 070-081/3-4ft 6s Sat05 063/2-3ft 6s Sun06 083-058/2-3ft 6s Mon06 060/3-4ft 6s Margarita-ABCs: Fri 04 081-087/3-4ft 6s Sat05 063-085/3-4ft Sun06 058-072/3-4ft 6s Mon07 065/3-4ft 6ss PR-ABC's: Fri04 092/089/3-4ft 6s Sat05 089-082/3-4ft 6s Sun06 074/3-4ft 6s Mon07 075/4-5ft 7s PR/St Martin-T&C;: Fri04 091-087/3-4ft 6s Sat05 072-090/3-4ft6s Sun06 070/3-4ft 6s Mon07 070.3-4ft 7s Full Story »

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