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SailBlog: Wx Update E Caribbean, Thu3 Jul 08am

Posted 1 month, 27 days ago

SailBlog: Wx Update E Caribbean, Thu3 Jul 08am
Wx Update, E Caribbean, Thu03 Jul 08am 6am QuickScat: East winds 15-20kts W of 63W.Puerto Rico to ABCs. Venezuelan Coast E 10-15kts. E of 63W data not available. Imagery: Area of Showers/TSTMS Martinigue to St Kitts to 65W. Showers still extending Aruba NE to just South of Puerto Rico. Martinique to Venezuelan Coast clear of any showers/TSTMS activity. Buoy Data 16N 58W Wind E 16kts Seas 6ft, 15N 56W Winds E 16kts Seas 6ft, 14.5N 53W Wind E 16kts Seas 5ft SYNOPSIS: Remains of Front still identifiable by satellite NE of Fl. NNE to off the NC coast then becomes diffuse. Remains of Frontal boundary with diffluent upper air trof. is still helping enhance the TSTM coverage over FL and SE to the NW Bahamas. Showers and Few TSTMS still possible just offshore from the Fl. Panhandle to the coastal region of La. Tropical Wave in the E Caribbean shows some spin indicating a weak low has developed with the wave. Squalls with winds to 35kts are possible in the E Caribbean N of Martinique this morning will continue to move W but has slowed a bit to 10-12kts. Wave is producing an area of Showers/TSTMS around and W of Martinigue to St Kitts OUTLOOK: Front along the East US Coast will continue to dissipate Thu03. The remains of the Stationary front in Fl. will remain active today, as upper-air support will continue to enhance Showers/TSTMS thru Thu03. Sat05 another front will begin to move off the NE US East coast producing SW flow up the east coast helping to enhance the TSTM/Shower activity over the SE US. The Atlantic High and is receding slightly E and will slowly continue to migrate east for the next few days. This movement should help keep the trades in E-ENE at 15-20kts over the next several days. With the Wave Showers/TSTM will continue to move over the Northern portion of the E Caribbean to include Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Wave will clear the region by early Fri04 next wave will be approaching Sun06. Area of upper air shear still evident to the West of the Wave so expects no further significant development. WAVES A well defined Wave over the Lesser Antilles near 62W and S of 19N moving W 15kts. Has formed a weak Low along the Axis near Martinique and Lt Lucia and is producing scattered showers/TSTMS to the N and NE Winds G35kts possible with showers/TSTMS. Circulation around low producing a brief period of W-NW winds just ahead of the Wave winds shift to the SE at 20kts behind Wave. Wave/LOW is moving into and unfavorable environment for further development Wave: 49W S of 12N moving W 10-15kts this wave very weak and hard to identify, little enhancement in weather expected Showers/slight increase in winds. This Low amplitude wave will move thru S area of the E Caribbean Sat05 Wave: 40W S of 19N moving W10-15kts is another weak wave and should only produce scattered showers/TSTMS as it passes thru the region Mon07 Tropical Depression Two formed last evening off the coast of Africa could be upgraded to Tropical Storm later today or tonight. Models are all moving the system to the NW by the middle of next week. Forecast is dependant on the Atlantic High Pressure, which is projected to weaken over the next several days as an Upper level low near 30N 50W continues to weaken the ridge. Forecast Positions Fri04 Near 15N 30W, Sat05 Near 16N 33W, Sun06 Near 17N 40W Mon07 Near 20N 46W, Tue08 Near 24N 51W PRECIP: Wave moving into region Thu03 will increase shower/TSTM activity over Leeward Islands Enhanced showers PR-DR Thu03 night to Fri04. WIND: (Directions if varied given in direction of travel) DR-St Martin: Thu03 090-093/15-20kts Fri04 103-085/15-20kts Sat05 083-095/15kts Sun06 072-084/15kts St Martin to Guadeloupe: Thu03 093-127/15-20kts Fri04 085-078/15-18kts Sat05 095/15-17kts Sun06 084-72/15kts Guadeloupe to St Vincent: Thu03 125/15-20kts Fri04 080/15-17kts Sat05 090-103/15-17kts Sun06 072-093/15kts Barbados to Trinidad: Thu03 080-107/15-18kts Fri04 080-075/15kts Sat04 098-085/15kts Sun06 099/15kts Trinidad-Margarita: Thu03 107-113/15-18kts Fri04 075-115/15kts Sat05 085-104/12-15kts Sun06 099/15kts Margarita-ABCs: Thu03 113/15-18kts Fri04 115/15-18kts Sat05 104/15kts Sun06 095-070/15kts PR-ABC's: Thu03 092-113/15-20kts Fri04 090-115/15-18kts Sat05 099-117/15kts Sun06 073/15kts PR/St Martin-T&C;: Thu03 095/15-20kts Fri04 085-098/15kts Sat05 080-099/15kts Sun06 087-076/15-17kts SEAS: (Directions if varied given in direction of travel) DR-St Martin: Thu03 093/4-5ft 6s Fri04 095/4-5ft 6s Sat05 105-072/4-5ft 6s Sun06 093-071/4-5ft 6s St Martin to Guadeloupe: Thu03 092/5-6ft 6s Fri04 095-078/4-5kts 6s Sat05 072/4-5ft 6s Sun06 071-066/4-5ft 6s Guadeloupe to St Vincent: Thu03 089/4-5ft 6s Fri04 085-079/4-5ft 6s Sat05 070/4-5ft 6s Sun06 066-074/3-5ft 6s Barbados to Trinidad: Thu03 080-070/3-4ft 6s Fri04 080-070/45ft 6s Sat04 074-063/3-4ft 6s Sun06 070-060/3-4ft 6s Trinidad-Margarita: Thu03 070-083/3-4ft 6s Fri04 070-078/3-4ft 6s Sat05 065/3-4ft 6s Sun06 060/2-4ft 6s Margarita-ABCs: Thu03 082/3-4ft 6s Fri04 080/3-4ft E 4-5ft W 6s Sat05 065-089/3-4ft 6s Sun06 064-074/2-4ft 6s PR-ABC's: Thu03 093-082/4-5ft N 3-4ft S 6s Fri04 094-087/4-5ft N 3-5ft S 6s Sat05 073-080/4-5ft N 3-4ft S 6s Sun06 068-074 3-4ft 6s PR/St Martin-T&C;: Thu03 089-093/4-5ft S 3-4ft N 6s Fri04 090/3-4ft 6s Sat05 070-080/4-5ft 6s Sun06 069-080/4-5ft 6s Full Story »

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